First Interim Report
The most important issue of our day is climate change. Climate change poses a massive threat to the environment. The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. The cause of all this—increased human activities that, in turn, produce greenhouse gases. Energy usage is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities worldwide. Fossil fuel burning is responsible for almost two-thirds of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, which are used to power transportation, industry, heating, and electricity. Thus, energy use and production have a significant impact on the environment.
Now do not get me wrong, because they prevent the heat from the sun from bouncing back into space and make the Earth habitable; greenhouse gases are a natural occurrence and are vital to the life of people and millions of other living creatures. But because of industrialization, deforestation, and large-scale agriculture that has lasted for more than a century, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has reached record heights. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, released its Sixth Assessment Report, which assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. The report found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2℉, or 1.1℃, since 1750. The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 3℉ within the next few decades.
Space is a crucial aspect of understanding climate change. Developments in space technologies in the last two decades have substantially contributed to our understanding of our planet's climate. Things like satellite imaging, space exploration, and new technologies are essential because they give us a good idea of the big picture of the planet's climate and how we can adapt to address climate change. NASA is launching the next generation of Earth's science satellites, called Earth System Observatory, that will launch in the next decade. These satellites are specifically designed to give information about Earth. In general, collecting more information about our planet from space helps us better understand climate change.
Our group has continued to research climate, energy, and space and how they all connect, and what is happening now and as well as in the future. From our research, we were able to look at specific aspects of climate change, changing technologies, and the second and third-order effects of that. For example, probabilistic machine learning will become increasingly popular as we need to know how the weather changes for agriculture and sustainability. Furthermore, policy seems to be a huge connection between climate, energy, and space. Policy is what will change behavior and what will ensure that our habits will change. Not only this, but while researching, we focused on current events, the effects of them, and how that will change the future.
Overall, we have continued to develop our plan further. This includes choosing the platform that would work for us, making fringe sketches, doing more pointed research, and starting to connect the dots between climate, energy, and space.
Second Interim Report
PAKISTAN AND INDIA
Climate change is increasing at an exponential rate, and at this point, there is not much of substance being done to stop it. At the rate it’s happening now, we are headed for a world that will be three degrees hotter than it is now by 2100. As early as five to ten years, various regions of our planet could be increasingly inhospitable to humans. Several parts of North America, Africa, Australia, and Asia could either be too hot or underwater in the near future. Studies already show that if the world doesn’t drastically reduce its carbon emissions, parts of India and Pakistan could be inhospitable to humans because it would be too hot. In March of 2022, northwest and central India saw its highest temperatures since the country began keeping records 122 years ago. New Delhi, the capital of India, had seven consecutive days over 40 degrees Celsius in April. This is concerning because, according to multiple studies, the wet-bulb temperature is 35 degrees Celsius. This essentially means that 35 degrees Celsius is the absolute limit of human tolerance; we cannot live in temperatures above that. In addition, it’s so hot in Pakistan that the country went straight from winter to summer this year. There was no spring season for the first time in decades. Due to the extreme heat, there has been an increased number of people dying because of heat-related issues in India and Pakistan. Considering over 1.5 billion people live in either India or Pakistan, if regions of those countries become inhospitable to humans, it would cause significant issues for the world.
Although Pakistan, Australia, Africa, and India are already experiencing extreme temperatures, droughts, and death, it seems like nothing will change in climate until the death tolls begin to rise. The $100 billion climate change finance from rich nations has yet to reach poor countries. Currently, there is distrust in climate change initiatives because of broken promises and breached agreements. For example, although the Paris Agreement has good intentions and includes important goals, it has failed to meet deadlines. Governments are not behaving as if global warming is a crisis. At Cop 27, which are climate talks held in November, many countries will need to speak honestly that they have not fulfilled their statutory duty to publish environment bill targets. It is serious business that the United Kingdom Government “has delayed publication of clean water and biodiversity targets, putting it in breach of its environment act” (TheGuardian). Several environmental groups have accused the government of an “attack on nature.” Only a select few countries have taken these agreements seriously since COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last November. “Failing to meet legal deadlines to introduce targets to ensure we have clean air, land, and water amounts to a monumental dereliction of duty” (TheGuardian). Governments are upsetting the people and are not following through on their promises.
Not only are promises being broken, but oil giants are seriously cashing out now. Shell is completely reaping the benefits of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with record profits of $11.5 billion.. Shell also paid ZERO windfall tax in the United Kingdom despite expecting to amass $4 trillion in 2022. Big oil companies like Shell could single-handedly solve the cost-of-living crisis and fund the clean energy transition. The internationally agreed target of 1.5C by 2030 can be accomplished if these big oil companies invest 2 trillion in additional income in low-emission fuels, such as hydrogen and biofuels. One possible solution to climate change is to defeat the fossil fuel industry. The CO2 from fossil fuels is the biggest problem, so if the price of energy rose dramatically, it would push nations towards clean energy. Delivering on the Paris Agreement requires a "dramatic shift in the way that we produce and use energy" and "The UN Environment Programme, the international Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental panel on climate change have made it clear that it requires significant reductions in coal, oil, and natural (fossil) gas to reach the goals in the Paris Agreement" (beyondoilandgas.com). Our group closely relates to others, such as Policy, Government, and Security, as well as News and Information. If we were to work together on our topics, we could find a beneficial solution to climate change.
FOOD, CONNECTION WITH AGTECH AND BIOTECH, AND IMPLICATIONS
According to The Guardian, “The Climate crisis causes temperatures to rise, precipitation patterns to shift and drought conditions to lengthen, many crops are struggling to grow.” With hurricanes Fiona and Ian, flooding in eastern Kentucky, and a record dry summer as the western US entered its 22nd year of a once-in-a-millennium megadrought, the US has already seen more than two dozen climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 Billion. The implications of this are that farmers must make a choice. They need to either shut down, relocate, or alter their operations.
Rice, wheat, and corn provide about half of the world's calories. In California, rice farmers have the lowest number of seeds since the 1950s, and only 250,000 acres of rice will be harvested this year, which is about half of a typical season. The reason is that although they were the first on the list to receive any extra water, there wasn't enough to grow their complete harvest. As a result, "California's Sacramento River Valley – which usually exports about half of its rice to China and Japan – is facing a $1.3 Billion economic loss, with 14,300 agricultural jobs lost." The implications are going to be high demand and reduced supply, which will be reflected in the prices. Also, growers in California and Italy will have to move to cooler climates like Northern California and China.
Furthermore, the war in Ukraine directly affected the country’s significant wheat exports. Not only this, but wheat growers could not grow as much wheat due to extreme weather. Relating to the group AgTech and BioTech, scientists have begun to breed new varieties of wheat. The implications that come from harvest falling 25% and high rainfall that floods spring crops will create a huge need for scientists to develop new ways to keep food available. For example, if the climate is not paid attention to, it will lead to a need to 3D print food. If places like California cannot grow crops and people can no longer afford their necessities, people will need to find alternatives.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Artificial Intelligence is a key component that is transforming the world. As mentioned, climate change is one of the world’s biggest challenges. Leaders believe that artificial intelligence is important in the journey of solving this climate crisis. How? One might ask. Since 1970, CO2 emissions have increased almost 100%. However, it is a bit difficult to measure emissions accurately. Companies that do track their emissions might only track their own production, resulting in a greatly underestimated number. With the help of AI tools, companies can run quick simulations, set targets, manage global portfolios, report data, and even calculate a carbon footprint. If our goal right now is to halve our emissions in the next 10 years and eventually achieve net zero emissions, AI could help us get there.
A recent survey of 1000+ leaders from 14 countries on the usage of AI came back with these results:
· 87% find AI to be a helpful tool in the fight against climate change
· 43% of organizations, led by industrial goods companies, can envision using AI for their own climate efforts today
· 67% of private-sector climate and AI leaders want governments to do more to support the use of AI to combat climate change.
(Maher, Meinecke, Gromier, Garcia-Novelli, Fortmann from Boston Consulting Group)
A recent survey of 1000+ leaders from 14 countries on the usage of AI came back with these results:
· 87% find AI to be a helpful tool in the fight against climate change
· 43% of organizations, led by industrial goods companies, can envision using AI for their own climate efforts today
· 67% of private-sector climate and AI leaders want governments to do more to support the use of AI to combat climate change.
(Maher, Meinecke, Gromier, Garcia-Novelli, Fortmann from Boston Consulting Group)
Through machine learning, companies can monitor carbon emission trends using more intricate techniques with advanced technology. For instance, satellite data can be exploited with AI. With this, machines can derive semantics from methods and machinery already in use, for other purposes, to help predict emission patterns and eventually reduce emissions altogether.
Another thing to note is what the use of AI entails. Ed Mitchard, Chief Technical Officer and Co-Founder at Space Intelligence, is interested in building “Green AI”. As of right now, we know that storing and running data burns carbon, as well as launching a satellite. Is it possible to use AI and machine learning with little to no negative environmental impact? Five years ago, Microsoft, a Fortune 500 company created AI for Earth, a branch that allows individuals and organizations to come together and find solutions to how we can manage the Earth’s natural systems. They are currently in the process of building a Planetary Computer that can globally monitor the environment with spatial analysis tools. Moreover, AI for Earth has supported 950 projects all around the world with the help of over 250 grants. Their focus is on climate change, agriculture, biodiversity, and water.
Although the use of AI to combat climate change is not 100% in effect, it is still a process that many people are passionate about. Leaders truly believe that AI is a step towards a better world. Again, this is something that needs more engagement and commitment from the government, as well as better education and research from AI leaders and scientists.
MORE ON ENERGY AND SPACE
The primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are transportation (27%), electricity production (25%), production of goods and raw materials (24%), commercial and residential use (13%), agriculture (11%), and land and forestry use (13%). Thus, if 52% of greenhouse gases are used for transportation and energy, by focusing on creating energy from new sources, we can alleviate these two issues. Thus, reducing the greenhouse gas emissions by relying on solar, wind, and hydroelectric resources. For one, the US Department of Transportation has already taken steps and built an agenda to create a cleaner and more sustainable transportation system. This includes enhancing land use planning with partners to enable people to make fewer journeys or to walk and bike while on those travels, making significant expenditures in infrastructure for passenger rail, public transit, and active transportation to encourage the use of more environmentally friendly modes of transportation, making an effort to ensure that all forms of transportation—including pipelines, aviation, shipping, and personal vehicles—are heading toward a decarbonized future, and making use of every transportation instrument at our disposal to lessen emissions, such as encouraging the use of renewable energy in highway rights-of-way.
With the help of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Transportation issued a joint rule-making that set greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy standards for cars, commercial trucks, and tractor trailers. The regulations it outlines for cars and commercial trucks projects that it will cut nearly 6 billion metric tons of emissions over the lifetimes of the vehicles sold in model years 2012-2025 while giving manufacturers flexibility in meeting the standards and ultimately reducing America’s dependence on oil and provide significant savings at the pump. In addition, under this program, tractor trailers are expected to save nearly 530 million barrels of oil and improve their fuel efficiency ratings.
Some states are taking matters into their own hands and issuing mandates to end the sales of gas cars and force drivers to switch to zero-emission vehicles. California was the first to announce their plan that is going into effect in 2035. Car companies can sell no more than 20% of models as gas cars in 2035. By 2037, 100% of sales must be electric vehicles. New York was the second to announce their plans, targeting the same 2035 goal. The European Parliament announced days ago that they are joining the movement. They agreed to a series of regulations that will result in an increase in the quantity of stations for alternate and refueling for vehicles like trains, trucks, and planes. This is a component of the "Fit for 55 in 2030 package," which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least a minimum of 55% by the year 2030.
The long-term benefits of this course of action can lead to millions in savings that could be used to benefit the space industry. An industry that will require resources and in its current state require an enormous amount of fuel. The acquisition of materials and fuel costs could be greatly reduced in this process. Of course, space offers us opportunities to advance our capacity for more efficient energy consumption and acquisitions. On its face, we can gather more materials, resources, and utilize solar, wind, and even thermal energy technologies as we make advances in technology. But let’s not forget that many modern advances came from groundbreaking research into space exploration. Forcing us to become more resourceful and find unique solutions in the hostile environment that space can be. For example, these technologies have already helped our research in understanding climate change, as NASA’s data is critical to understanding how temperature changes impact the planet. Project TROPICS (Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation Structure and Storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats) offers microwave measurements with quick refresh over the tropics that may be used to monitor the thermodynamics of the troposphere and the structure of the precipitation for storm systems during a storm’s lifespan. It provides high-resolution pictures into the eye of a hurricane, observations blind to a storm structure, precipitation structure and intensity, and advanced moisture levels.
The Earth System Observatory, created in 2021, gives important data to support efforts to combat climate change, mitigate disasters, put out forest fires, and enhance real-time agricultural operations. Each satellite in the Earth System Observatory will be specially crafted to complement the others, working in concert to produce a 3D, comprehensive perspective of Earth, from the planet's bedrock to its atmosphere. Studies of aerosols, clouds, convection, and precipitation, mass change in snow, ice, and water, surface biology and geology, and surface deformation and change are among the observables that have been named the general focus. “Over the past three decades, much of what we’ve learned about the Earth’s changing climate is built on NASA satellite observations and research,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in the agency statement. “NASA’s new Earth System Observatory will expand that work, providing the world with an unprecedented understanding of our Earth’s climate system, arming us with next-generation data critical to mitigating climate change, and protecting our communities in the face of natural disasters.”
The money for Earth research will launch the next generation of Earth-observing satellites to tackle urgent climate science concerns, as the Earth System Observatory includes a $250 million increase over what was originally allocated. With more time, energy, and resources gained from making the cost of transportation/energy more efficient, we can heavily invest in technologies that benefit us on the earth’s surface and in space. With this, we must be mindful of launching the satellites into space. China and other rivals are likely to target U.S. satellites in a conflict to cripple the military’s access to critical services and call for greater use of commercial space technologies to enhance U.S. defense. Cybersecurity thus plays an important role. The Department of Defense recently announced that they will prioritize building resilience in the cyberspace realm. In doing so, the Pentagon has plans to develop a multi-layer network of satellites for missile monitoring and defense and use commercial solutions to augment military space networks. The Department of Defense will “reduce adversary incentives for early attack by fielding diverse, resilient and redundant satellites constellations…and we will bolster our ability to fight through disruption by improving defensive capabilities and increasing options for reconstitution.” The strategy “will increase collaboration with the private sector in priority areas, especially with the commercial space industry, leveraging its technological advancements and entrepreneurial spirit to enable new capabilities.”
Below is a recording of our Final In-Class Presentation on Climate, Energy, and Space!
Links to media in the PowerPoint can be found as the last four videos of the "Important Videos" page.